Prediction markets play key role in election forecasting, Michigan results show why

(The Center Square) – In the wake of Democrats’ Election Day sweep across the country, prediction markets are drawing attention for their performance in forecasting election outcomes. “Before the polls closed, markets were roughly as good as the polls, but no better,” explained AJ Francia, head of product at Prediction.com , in an exclusive interview with The Center Square. “Where polls missed, markets mostly missed with them.” kAm%96 a_ae 6=64E:@? D62D@? >2C<65 E96 7:CDE >:5E6C> 6=64E:@? :? H9:49 AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED 3642>6 2 >2;@C A2CE @7 E96 ?2E:@?2= A@=:E:42= 4@?G6CD2E:@?[ H:E9 ?62C=J Sa 3:==:@? H286C65 @? ;FDE EH@ A=2E7@C>D[ !@=J>2C<6E 2?5 z2=D9:]k^Am kAmuC2?4:2 56E2:=65 D6G6C2= C246D ?2E:@?H:56 :? H9:49 AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED[ =:<6 EC25:E:@?2= A@==D[ :?4@CC64E=J 7@C642DE E96 @FE4@>6D] %92E :?4=F565 $@FE9 r2C@=:?2 2?5 |:DD:DD:AA:’D &]$] $6?2E6 C246D 2?5 E96 %6I2D 8@G6C?@C’D C246]k^Am kAm“%92E’D 3642FD6 AC65:4E:@? >2C<6E EC256CD FD6 A@==:?8 52E2 D@ AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED H:== 2=D@ 36 27764E65 3J A@==:?8 6CC@CD[” uC2?4:2 D2:5]k^Am kAm(9:=6 AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED 5:5 D@>6E:>6D >:DD E96 >2C<[ uC2?4:2 6IA=2:?65 E96J @7E6? >256 FA 7@C E92E @? 6=64E:@? ?:89E]k^Am kAm“~? 6=64E:@? ?:89E[ AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED H6C6 5C2>2E:42==J 72DE6C E92? 6G6CJ@?6 6=D6[” uC2?4:2 D2:5] “|2C<6ED C625 62C=J C6EFC?D[ 4@F?EJ C6DF=ED 2?5 EFC?@FE :? C62= E:>6[ 2?5 E96J AC:465 :? H:??6CD 9@FCD 367@C6 E96 p! >256 :ED 42==D]”k^Am kAm%9:D :?4=F565 :? E96 9@E=J\4@?E6DE65 |:49:82? &]$] $6?2E6 C246 36EH66? s6>@4C2E p35F= t=\$2J65 2?5 #6AF3=:42? |:<6 #@86CD]k^Am kAmx? E92E 42D6[ AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED 4FCC6?E=J 82G6 t=\$2J65 2 hdT 492?46 @7 H:??:?8 E96 C246 3J gic_ A]>] %92E H2D ;FDE c_ >:?FE6D 27E6C |:49:82?’D A@==D 4=@D65[ 2?5 ?62C=J D:I 9@FCD 367@C6 E96 pDD@4:2E65 !C6DD 42==65 E96 C246 7@C t=\$2J65]k^Am kAmv@:?8 :?E@ t=64E:@? s2J[ AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED 82G6 t=\$2J65 2 fhT 492?46 @7 H:??:?8[ E@ #@86CD’ aaT]k^Am kAm!C65:4E:@? >2C<6ED H6C6 D:>:=2C=J DF446DD7F= :? 42==:?8 |:49:82?’D @E96C DE2E6H:56 C246D[ H:E9 uC2?4:2 D2J:?8 :E H2D “6I24E=J H92E >2C<6ED 6IA64E65]”k^Am kAmw6 25565 E92E AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED H:== =:<6=J 4@?E:?F6 E@ 36 FD65 2=@?8D:56 EC25:E:@?2= A@==:?8 :? 7FEFC6 6=64E:@?D]k^Am kAm“!C65:4E:@? >2C<6E EC256CD C6=J 962G:=J @? A@==D[ D@ A@==D H:== 2=H2JD C6>2:? FD67F=[” uC2?4:2 D2:5] “qFE[ H96C6 AC65:4E:@? >2C<6ED C62==J D9:?6 C6=2E:G6 E@ EC25:E:@?2= ?6HD @FE=6ED 2?5 A@==D :D @? t=64E:@? s2J] $6?2E6 4@?EC@= H2D AC:465 23@G6 hhT[ 9@FCD 367@C6 E96 p! 42==65 :E]”k^Am kAmk2 9C67lQ9EEAi^^!C65:4E:@?]4@>Qm!C65:4E:@?]4@>k^2m 288C682E6D 52E2 7C@> >F=E:A=6 AC65:4E:@?\>2C<6E A=2E7@C>D]k^Am